Poll suggests support for Scottish independence is at lowest level in two years

A poll has suggested that support for independence has fallen in the past few months, and support for breaking up the Union is at its lowest point in a Panelbase poll for two years. 

The poll also found that pro-independence voters would fall short of a majority if a referendum was held tomorrow. 

The Panelbase poll, for the Sunday Times, found that excluding “don’t knows”, 48 percent would back independence. However, this is four points down from the level of support enjoyed in April. The four-point swing has seen support for staying in the Union up from 48 to 52 percent. 

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According to the data from the Sunday Times, support for independence is now at its lowest level in a Panelbase poll since 2019.

The Panelbase poll of 1,287 adults aged 16 and over found that 19 percent of respondents believe an independence referendum should be held within the next year, a decrease of 3 percent from April.

Support for a vote in the next 2 to 5 years was up 2 percent to 35 percent of voters although support for not holding a vote in the next year rose by 1 percent to 46. 

Panelbase figures also revealed that 22 percent of people believe independence will happen within five years, a decline of 8 percent since April this year. Belief in independence happening in the next 5/10 years was up 4 percent, however. 

Speaking to the Times, Professor Sir John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said this indicated “a cooling of the independence ardour” since the Holyrood elections and the results would reduce the pressure on Nicola Sturgeon, “to press the referendum button any time soon”.  

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Curtice also stated that the SNP could not afford for the independence debate “to be off the boil for long” adding: “the party needs to embark on a campaign to persuade more Scots of the merits of independence.

“Otherwise, Ms Sturgeon might find herself stuck with a promise to hold a referendum that she has little hope of winning.”

The Panelbase Westminster intentions found the SNP would win 52 seats, an increase of four, the Conservatives would lose two of their six seats, the Lib Dems two of their four seats, and Labour would retain their single seat

The Herald Scotland

The Herald Scotland

The Herald is a Scottish broadsheet newspaper founded in 1783. The Herald is the longest running national newspaper in the world and is the eighth oldest daily paper in the world. The title was simplified from The Glasgow Herald in 1992